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Context:
The South Dakota Legislature passed a ban on abortions with no exceptions for rape, incest, or to protect the life of the mother. Anti-choice forces hoped this law would form the basis of a challenge to Roe v. Wade with the new conservative composition of the Supreme Court. The pro-choice community got the legislation referred to the 2006 general election ballot for approval or repeal.
Our Work:
MSHC Partners developed a model to estimate the likelihood of opposing the abortion ban. The model went beyond the traditional definition of "pro-choice" voters to include those voters who were uneasy with abortion but nonetheless concerned that the sweeping ban went too far. The model allowed the relatively low-budget campaign to use its resources efficiently to persuade cross-pressured voters and mobilize opponents of the ban.
Results:
A pro-choice victory by a margin of 56-44%. |
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