Wrapping Up the 2007 Votes for the 2008 Race

The Washington Post

By Chris Cillizza And Shailagh Murray
Sunday, May 27, 2007; Page A02

Here's a presidential pop quiz: Which state will cast the first votes of the 2008 presidential race?

Iowa? Wrong. New Hampshire? Nope.

Try North Carolina, where early voting begins on Dec. 17.

The Tar Heel State will be followed by New Jersey on Dec. 27, California on Jan. 2, and Florida and Illinois on Jan. 14. All told, seven states and the District of Columbia will be voting by the time the Jan. 14 Iowa caucuses roll around, according to a report compiled by MSHC Partners, a Democratic direct-mail firm.

Lost amid the hubbub of mega-states moving up their presidential primaries to late January and early February are the effects that absentee voting -- originally developed to allow those serving in the military to cast votes -- and polling places that will be open well in advance of their voting day might have on the nomination fight.

Access to absentee voting has been loosened dramatically in recent cycles as election officials try any means necessary to involve citizens in the electoral process.

Take New Jersey, for example, where a state law passed in 2005 lifted the requirement that voters provide some sort of reason for requesting an absentee ballot. This "no excuses" program produced a rapid increase in absentee voting in the Garden State in 2006 -- a trend likely to increase in the coming presidential primary.

In states where absentee voting or early voting at polling places is more established, large chunks of the vote are expected to come in before the actual primary or caucus day.

Nearly half of all votes cast in California's primary and general election in 2006 came in early. In Florida, almost one in three voters cast an early ballot last November.

If those trends hold up, a significant segment of voters living in these major states will have voted before they even know the results of the Iowa caucuses.

A savvy campaign can use that early vote to its advantage -- building a firewall in the event of a weaker-than-expected showing in Iowa or a strong foundation to capitalize on momentum gained in the Hawkeye State and beyond.

To do that requires the construction of massive voter-contact and voter-turnout programs to ensure that a campaign's most ardent supporters turn out early. And creating that sort of infrastructure costs money -- lots of money.

Even for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.), who is one of the best-funded candidates in the contest, the early vote will force some tough spending decisions -- such as contemplating skipping Iowa.

Republicans roasted Democrats for trying to set a "surrender date" in the Iraq war. Now Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has set one of his own: Nov. 4, 2008.

"I think the odds are kind of tough," the Kentucky Republican said of his party's chances of winning a Senate majority.

"I think we have an excellent chance of staying roughly where we are, and I think we've demonstrated in the first five months that 49 is not an irrelevant minority," McConnell continued. "I think we have an excellent chance of being roughly in the same position we are now in the next Congress."

Democrats already hold a big fundraising advantage for 2008 Senate races. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee reported a cash-on-hand balance of $12 million as of the end of April, compared with $3.4 million for the National Republican Senatorial Committee. According to the campaign finance group PoliticalMoneyLine, six of the top 10 Senate '08 money leaders were Democrats. But far more Republican Senate seats are up for grabs next year -- 21, compared with 12 seats held by Democrats.

No. 4 on the list was McConnell himself, who reported $1.7 million in receipts through March 31. Democrats are thinking revenge for the GOP's targeting of former Senate majority leader Tom Daschle (D-S.D.), and are starting to lay the groundwork for a forceful challenge. One liberal independent group targeted McConnell with TV ads in April, and a recent poll showed the Republican running roughly even with Democratic Rep. Ben Chandler of Kentucky.

Players

What do Michael Nutter, the odds-on favorite to become Philadelphia's next mayor, and Steve Beshear, the front-runner to be elected Kentucky's next governor, have in common? A man named Fred Yang. Yang, a partner in the Democratic polling firm Garin Hart Yang Research Group, handled the survey research for both men's surprisingly strong victories in recent party primaries. Nutter, a former city councilman, won with a surprisingly strong double-digit margin in the May 15 vote, despite a seven-way field that included two sitting members of Congress. A week later, Beshear, who served stints as state attorney general and lieutenant governor, won 41 percent in the primary to avoid a runoff with free-spending businessman Bruce Lunsford. And, no, Yang and his firm aren't aligned with any of the current crop of presidential candidates. Let the courtship begin. . .